If Q2 felt like a steady climb, Q3 will look a bit different. Rather than building momentum evenly across all three months, the quarter unfolds in two phases: a quieter start followed by a much stronger finish. Looking at July alone won’t tell the full story, Q3’s momentum is expected to build significantly as the quarter progresses.

The forces driving that shift aren’t new. They’re budget planning cycles and end-of-quarter spending behavior, the same ones that have shaped every quarter in this series so far. What’s different in Q3 is a variable the first half of the year didn’t have to deal with: summer.

Here’s what that actually looks like, and how to plan around it.

Early Q3 (July): Budgets Are Fresh, Spending Is Cautious

The first few days of July often carry some residual strength from July 4th spend, then pull back once advertisers return and begin pacing fresh Q3 budgets. That early swing makes July one of the more unpredictable stretches of the quarter, and a poor benchmark for what the rest of Q3 will look like.

The quarterly reset starts after the holiday. By the time advertisers are back from the long weekend, they’ve just come out of Q2’s execution phase, and Q3 budgets are brand new. As always happens at the start of a quarter, spending starts cautiously. Teams are pacing campaigns, testing what’s working, and holding off on aggressive bids until they have more signal.

That means the back half of July is often the softest stretch of the quarter.

Late June and late July are measuring two completely different moments in the advertising cycle. One is end-of-quarter, when budgets are racing to close while the other is the beginning of a new one, when spend is just finding its footing. Comparing the two isn’t an apples-to-apples read on your performance.

Summer Introduces Real Variability

Q1 and Q2 both follow a fairly predictable rhythm. Q3 doesn’t, and that’s by design, not by accident.

Summer demand behaves differently than the rest of the year because travel picks up, outdoor and lifestyle content sees more attention, and retail moments can inject demand into the market with little warning.

That variability cuts in different directions depending on your niche. A travel or outdoor site might see a real lift in July that a different vertical doesn’t. There’s no single rule that applies evenly across every content category this quarter, which is exactly what makes Q3 harder to predict than Q1 or Q2.

You can’t run the same fixed strategy all quarter and expect it to work equally well in July as it does in September because Q3 requires you to adjust as you go.

Mid-Q3 (August): The Bridge Into Stronger Demand

August is where Q3 starts to turn. Back-to-school campaigns typically begin ramping in late July and build through August, and that spend has real momentum behind it. Unlike the cautious, wait-and-see budgets driving early July, back-to-school budgets come with a hard deadline: the school year starts whether a campaign is ready or not.

That urgency shows up in demand. For publishers in family, education, retail, and lifestyle-adjacent niches especially, August tends to outperform July, and it sets the stage for the stronger push still to come in September.

Even outside those niches, August is worth watching. It’s the bridge between July’s quiet start and September’s close, and it’s usually the first clear signal of which direction the rest of the quarter is heading.

Political Ad Spend Is a Second Demand Driver

Back-to-school isn’t the only added force pushing demand higher this quarter. Midterm election spending adds a second, and unlike back-to-school, it doesn’t wrap up when the school year starts.

Political ad spend is absorbing a growing share of linear and CTV inventory. Advertisers who can’t reach their audiences efficiently through those channels are moving budget into display and online video instead. That pressure builds through August and September and peaks in October, meaning it carries this lift past Q3 and into the start of Q4.

For publishers, that’s demand shifting in your favor. More competition for the same display and video inventory usually means better rates, though the timelines are tighter and buying behavior looks less predictable than a typical cycle.

End-of-Quarter Budgets Drive the September Push

Two forces are now stacked on top of each other heading into September. Election-driven demand is still building and the same end-of-quarter budget mechanic that made late June the strongest part of Q2. As Q3 winds down, unused budget becomes a problem advertisers actively want to solve. Spending accelerates in the final weeks of the quarter as teams push to use what they’ve allocated before it’s gone.

That means late September tends to meaningfully outperform late July.

If you’re comparing performance across the quarter, measure against the pattern. A slow start and a strong close are actually the same story, just at different points in the three-month arc.

How Publishers Can Stay Ahead of Q3 Trends

A few practical ways to work with this pattern instead of reacting to it:

• Hold your best summer content strategically. If you have strong travel, outdoor, or seasonal lifestyle content, plan for it to carry weight through the whole quarter, not just the first few weeks.
• Set realistic expectations for late July. A soft stretch after the July 4th bump is normal, not a warning sign.
• Watch for the back-to-school ramp in August. If your content touches family, education, or retail, this is often the first real sign of momentum building toward September.
• Watch for one-off demand spikes. Major retail or platform events can move the market on short notice, on top of the broader seasonal pattern.
• Keep late-September performance in perspective. It’s typically the strongest stretch of the quarter, not an outlier.

Q3 in the Context of the Advertising Year

Every quarter plays a different role in the annual cycle:

• Q1 resets budgets and strategies
• Q2 stabilizes the market and builds momentum
• Q3 introduces more variability around summer demand, building through August before the strongest activity concentrates late in the quarter
• Q4 delivers peak competition

The calendar changes every year. The behavior behind it largely doesn’t.

If you’re curious about the mechanics behind all of this, our guide on why eCPMs rise and fall throughout the year breaks down the underlying framework in more detail, and our look at the Q2 pattern covers what happens right before Q3 begins.

And if you’re evaluating whether your current ad setup is capturing this seasonal lift the way it should, Q3 is also the ideal window to make a change before Q4 arrives.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does July feel slower than June? The very start of July often holds up thanks to July 4th spend, but the slowdown sets in once advertisers are back from the holiday and working with fresh, cautiously-paced Q3 budgets. This is the same pattern that shows up at the start of every quarter, not a sign of a problem with your site.

Is a Q3 dip normal? Yes. A softer late July is consistent with the seasonal pattern publishers see every year. What matters more than any single week is how performance trends across the full quarter.

Does August perform better than July? For many publishers, yes. Back-to-school campaigns typically start ramping in late July and build through August, giving demand a real lift ahead of the September push. Publishers in family, education, and retail-adjacent niches tend to see this most clearly.

When in Q3 should I expect the strongest performance? Late September typically outperforms the rest of the quarter, driven by advertisers spending down unused budget before the quarter closes.

Note: This piece follows the seasonality series’ standard disclaimer. Past performance can’t guarantee future results, and broader economic or market conditions can shift the pattern’s timing or intensity in a given year.

If you’ve been in the content creation business long enough, you’ve probably noticed a familiar shift around the start of spring. After the budget reset in the first quarter (outlined in our previous post), RPMs often start trending upward, advertiser activity becomes more consistent, and dashboards begin looking a little healthier. 

Publishers are glad to leave Q1 behind, and the Q2 improvement is hard to miss, but here’s what’s actually driving it and why the recovery unfolds the way it does. 

The pattern comes down to three things happening at the same time:

• Advertisers move from planning mode to execution
• Multiple seasonal events layer demand across the quarter
• Quarter-end budgets increase competition later in June
  

Understanding these forces makes performance in Q2 much easier to interpret.

Advertisers Move From Planning to Execution

The first part of the pattern starts with how advertisers plan their budgets. Q4 ending and slowing consumer spending make for a perfect time to reevaluate last year’s results. 

This is also when fiscal years end, and budgets have just reset. Marketing teams can use this time to test new campaigns and refine their strategy for the coming year. Spending always ramps up slowly while those decisions take shape.

Now for the good news! By the time April arrives, most of that groundwork is finished. Budgets have been approved, campaigns are active, and teams have shifted their focus from testing to scaling what works. These changes make a substantial positive impact for publishers, and not a moment too soon.

With more active campaigns, more advertisers are competing for the same audience. 

When more advertisers want the same inventory, prices tend to move upward. That shift from planning to execution is one of the main reasons eCPMs often begin to improve in Q2.

Seasonal Events Stack Demand Across the Quarter

Q2 is packed with holidays and events that drive advertiser demand. It’s a peak period for sports, including the NBA Playoffs, NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, and major golf tournaments like The Masters and PGA Championship. Add Easter, Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, graduation season, Father’s Day, plus early summer travel, and you have a quarter full of demand drivers.

None of these individually move the needle the way Black Friday does, but together they create a consistent push in advertiser demand across the quarter.

What makes this interesting is that each event pulls in different advertisers. Retail brands push gifts. Travel companies start marketing summer trips. Lifestyle and outdoor brands lean in as the weather turns.

Some events like graduation season bring multiple industries into the market at once. Families are buying gifts, booking travel, planning parties, and stocking up on supplies all at the same time.

The result isn’t a single spike. It’s demand layered week after week. That’s a big part of why Q2’s recovery feels gradual rather than sudden.

End-of-Quarter Budgets Drive Later Ad Spend

Early in the quarter, campaigns tend to start more measured. Teams are evaluating performance and pacing carefully. But as the quarter winds down, the math changes.

Unspent budgets don’t always roll over. In some organizations, it’s a true “use-it-or-lose-it” situation, and letting budget go unspent can work against you when allocations are set for the following year. So advertisers accelerate spending in the final stretch to get their dollars out the door.

More advertisers competing for the same inventory pushes eCPMs up. This happens every quarter, and Q2 is no different.

In practice, late June almost always outperforms early April, and the days leading up to quarter-end show the strongest demand of the quarter.

Why Q2 Often Feels More Stable

Compared to other quarters, Q2 tends to produce fewer dramatic swings. Q4 delivers major spikes tied to holiday shopping while Q1 introduces a reset as budgets refresh and campaigns ramp slowly. Q2 behaves differently with its gradual improvements across the quarter. For most publishers, Q2 should feel less like a roller coaster and more like a steady climb.

How Publishers Can Stay Ahead of Q2 Trends

Seasonal patterns aren’t something publishers need to chase. They provide context for planning content and setting expectations.

A few practical ways to approach Q2:

1. Refresh seasonal content early

Posts related to Mother’s Day, graduation, summer travel, and outdoor activities benefit from updates ahead of time.

2. Lean into evergreen summer topics

Travel guides, outdoor activities, family events, and seasonal recipes often align well with advertiser demand during this quarter.

3. Watch late-quarter performance

End-of-Quarter budget behavior can make late June one of the stronger periods of the entire year.

4. Keep performance in perspective

Even during stronger quarters, advertising markets still fluctuate day to day. Broader trends matter more than any single dip.

Q2 in the Context of the Advertising Year

Each quarter plays a different role in the annual advertising cycle.

• Q1 resets budgets and strategies
• Q2 stabilizes the market and builds momentum 
• Q3 introduces more variability around summer demand
• Q4 delivers peak competition

Once you recognize the pattern, the changes in your dashboard start to feel less random. While the exact numbers change from year to year, the rhythm behind them tends to show up again and again.

If you’re curious about the bigger picture behind these seasonal shifts, our guide on why eCPMs rise and fall throughout the year breaks it down in more detail. And if you’d like to see how those trends often translate to specific dates, our annual Best eCPM Days calendar visualizes how advertiser demand typically moves across the year.